- Fan50
- Accuracy
- 2026 categories
- Predicting usage
Category leaders
Best at predicting player usage, 2026
- Half-PPR
- Through week 8
- Benchmark: FantasyPros consensus
Which fantasy experts best predict player usage?
Footballguys best predicted player usage through week 8, +0.7 skill points ahead of the FantasyPros consensus on expected points over 32 position-weeks.
Results
| Rank | Ranker | vs consensus | Sample |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Footballguys | +0.7 | 32 position-weeks |
| 2 | Mick Ciallela | +0.5 | 24 position-weeks |
| 3 | Yahoo Sports Consensus | +0.0 | 32 position-weeks |
| 4 | FFToday | −0.6 | 32 position-weeks |
| 5 | Draft Sharks | −0.8 | 32 position-weeks |
| 6 | FF Toolbox | −1.6 | 32 position-weeks |
| 7 | ESPN app projections | −2.7 | 32 position-weeks |
| 8 | Eric Moody | −4.3 | 32 position-weeks |
| 9 | Tristan H. Cockcroft | −4.8 | 32 position-weeks |
| 10 | Matt Bowen | −5.4 | 32 position-weeks |
| 11 | Liz Loza | −5.4 | 32 position-weeks |
| 12 | Daniel Dopp | −5.8 | 32 position-weeks |
| 13 | Mike Clay | −6.1 | 32 position-weeks |
| 14 | Field Yates | −6.5 | 32 position-weeks |
| 15 | Eric Karabell | −6.9 | 32 position-weeks |
About this category
Weekly fantasy scores carry a lot of luck: a long touchdown, a vultured goal-line carry, a fumble returned for six. This category grades each QB, RB, WR and TE ranking against expected fantasy points instead: what each player should have scored from their targets, carries, air yards and field position. Expected points come from ffopportunity (part of ffverse), a model built on nflverse play-by-play, converted to half-PPR scoring.
Each week counts as the gap between a ranker's skill score on expected points and the FantasyPros consensus's own score in the same week and position, then the gaps are averaged. That keeps the comparison fair between rankers who cover different positions, since quarterback indexes naturally run lower than running back indexes. A ranker needs 12 position-weeks. A positive number means the ranker anticipated usage better than the consensus did.
- What are expected fantasy points?
- The points a player would typically score given their usage (targets, carries, air yards, red-zone looks), estimated by the ffopportunity model from nflverse play-by-play.
- Why measure usage instead of results?
- Usage is the part of a player's week a ranker can reasonably forecast. Grading on it removes much of the touchdown and big-play luck in a single week.